With the job market having cooled slightly as October hiring slowed in October, mixed data in the most recent US Initial Jobless Claims does not take employment entirely off the list as to the Fed’s, or the market’s, watch list.

That said, the November 14th CPI release is the next focus du jour of the Fed. While inflation cooled to 3.7% in September from over 8% a year ago, we are still well above the Fed’s 2% target inflation rate.

The most recent PCE data is summarized in the below link:

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2023

Powell’s comments earlier this month reinforced the Fed’s “resolute” focus on the 2% inflation target, but also acknowledged the uncertainties in geopolitics as well as well as the surge in Treasury rates, which may in itself be tantamount to a Fed hike.  The market has embraced the November statement as a signal that the Fed hikes are over, and the upcoming CPI report is at the top of the market’s near term watch list.